Global warming and Hurricanes

As anyone who has not been living in a cave knows there has been much made about global warming and climate change. I tend to be a skeptic at least in regards to the idea that global warming if it indeed exists, is caused by humans. However I remain open to the idea that it is possible that humanity can cause global climate change (what that means exactly and if it is actually a bad thing considering we as humans generally are more prosperous during historical periods of warmer temperatures, is still another debate entirely). What I generally resent is when those who promote the idea that Global warming is happening due to human influences -and that it will be catastrophic beyond all measure- is that they often do so without allowing any room to debate their conclusions and declare the debate 'over' with the same irrational religious fervor that is often unjustly attributed to Christians. Yes for many, Climate Change is their religion.

In order to propagate this new 'religion' Global Warming alarmists will use anything they can get their hands on reinforce their scare tactics. Case in point: When Katrina hit landfall in 2005 there was much talk about how Global Warming causes an increase in violent weather. Al Gore's film "An Inconvenient Truth" opens with footage of Katrina. His defence was(emphasis added):

The average hurricane has become significantly stronger because of global warming. What was unusual about Katrina was how strong it was. And after all, the same year Katrina hit, it was far from the only strong hurricane...The sharp increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, according to the scientists, is strongly affected by global warming

Now I am not a climatologist and I don't play one on TV. But what I do know is that truth is not determined my a majority vote, not even a majority vote by climatologists, nor is truth determined by putting it in the title of a movie. And wisdom is not discovered by looking at climate models especially if they are counting on government grants given to them because of a fear (rational or irrational) of climate change. There are people a lot smarter than me who remain skeptical as well, and along with their credentials it is sometimes easy to see the wisdom in their writing and logic in their conclusions.

The Wall Street Journal has this excellent article by William Gray a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University regarding Hurricanes and Global Warming.

Here are some particularly damming points to the assumption that Hurricanes are caused or strengthened by Global Warming:

The hypothesis that increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases the number of hurricanes fails... ...when we compare two other multi-decade periods: 1925-1965 and 1966-2006. In the 41 years from 1925-1965, there were 39 U.S. land-falling major hurricanes. In the 1966-2006 period there were 22 such storms -- only 56% as many. Even though global mean temperatures have risen by an estimated 0.4 Celsius and CO2 by 20%, the number of major hurricanes hitting the U.S. declined.

My Colorado State University colleagues and I attribute the increase in hurricane activity to the speed-up of water circulating in the Atlantic Ocean. This circulation began to strengthen in 1995 -- at exactly the same time that Atlantic hurricane activity showed a large upswing

Gray goes on to state that this circulation whose strength is unique to the Atlantic Ocean is called thermohaline circulation (THC).

Since 1995, the Atlantic's THC has been significantly stronger than average. It was also stronger than average during the 1940s to early 1960s -- another period with a spike in major hurricane activity. It was distinctly weaker than average in the two quarter-century periods of 1970-1994 and 1900-1925, when there was less hurricane activity.

And here's the money quote (emphasis added)

One reason may be that the advocates of warming tend to be climate modelers with little observational experience. Many of the modelers are not fully aware of how the real atmosphere and ocean function. They rely more on theory than on observation

While this certainly does not prove global warming is a hoax, it goes along way to show the irrationality of many Global Warming advocates. Certainly more needs to be discussed and researched, but it must be done in a reasonable, not fanatical fashion. We must look at this problem (if it is indeed a problem) and understand the cost benefit of the actions we take. In short we need to stop listing to the Al Gores and start looking at it with an open mind so as to discover the truth rather than pretending that you can make truth by declaring it so -- regardless of it's convenience or lack there of.